Osama Bin Laden on a t-shirt in Brazil.

The problem Bin Laden faces, of course, is that any kind of scare tactic he employs in the runup to the election would almost certainly be interpreted as an attempt to influence the election in favor of McCain – in other words, it could be viewed as a perverse endorsment of McCain by Bin Laden, and that could easily backfire (to say the least). There was an icident recently, however, in which some Islamic radicals posted a message on an Al Quaeda website in which they speculated that a McCain victory would advance the cause of Al Quaeda. Nicholas Kristof wrote an op-ed in the New York times calling it The Endorsment From Hell.

There has been some speculation, however, that this endorsment is actually reverse psychology. Surely Al Quaeda knows that their websites are monitored by US intelligence agencies, and surely Al Quaeda knows that explicitly rooting for a particular candidate is not likely to do that candidate any good.

Is it possible, then, that Al Quaeda actually doesn’t care for a McCain presidency. The question here is whether we truly understand our enemy. If Bin Laden is a nihilist who wants nothing but chaos to reign forever more, then perhaps he would like to continue his conflict with the US. Is it possible, however, that even Bin Laden is inspired by the possibility of an Obama presidency? Not inspired to hate, but inspired to hope? Could this election be causing him to question every assumption he had about the United States? A dark skinned man with the name Barack Hussein Obama is about to become the President of the United States? I’ll bet you that Bin Laden himself doesn’t know what to make of it but finds himself oddly hopeful.

I suspect that the polling this year is predicting a much closer race than it will turn out to be.  I expect that the models that the polling companies are using are based on voting patterns and turnout in past elections, and I think this election is different.  I think that this time the youth vote really will turn out, and African American turnout will be higher than even the high levels that are predicted.

The latest revelation — that Palin spent $150,000 of RNC campaign money on a shopping spree at Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue– is the final nail in the coffin.   It undermines her whole “Joe Sixpack” and “Joe the Plumber” image.  She has spent more on outfits in a month than Joe the Plumber’s salary for over three years.  The interviews she gave to Charles Gibson and Katie Couric raised serious questions about whether she was prepared to be President, but at least she retained some appeal amongst a certain kind of working class conservative voter.  But the shopping spree scandal will damage even that appeal.  It certainly won’t play well in Appalachia.

(Incidentally, I don’t think they planned to donate those clothes to charity until after the scandal broke.)

Electoral Vote Map

So the net effect is that every swing state will swing Obama’s way.  To begin, Obama will win every state Kerry won in 2004.  That gives him 252 electoral votes.  Give him Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, and Nevada, and he is at 338.  This much seems absolutely certain.  Next, toss in North Carolina, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, and Georgia, and he is 395.  These are the states that the pundits aren’t yet predicting he will win, but I am.  Now, to get to 400 we need either Kentucky or Tennessee, or some combination of North Dakota, Alaska, and Montana.

One more misstep by the McCain campaign and he could find himself left with only Utah.

Know hope!

P.S. Thanks to http://www.elizabethperry.com/woolgathering/ for the map.

]]> http://jonti.org/politics/a-cruel-picture/feed 0 http://jonti.org/uncategorized/live-blogging-the-us-presidential-debate http://jonti.org/uncategorized/live-blogging-the-us-presidential-debate#comments Thu, 16 Oct 2008 01:08:06 +0000 jonti http://jonti.org/?p=131 10:45 PM — I’ll end by noting that I have always liked McCain. For this point in our history, however, I think Obama is the better choice for president. I do think that we have two good choices this year, though. I wish McCain had run a more positive campaign and I wish he had not chosen Sarah Palin as his running mate, but I still think he would make a decent president. What I really wish, of course, is that he had defeated Bush in the 2000 primary. Obama succeeding president McCain would be a much better world than the one we have.

10:39 PM — I would call this debate a draw in debating terms. In terms of how the American people will respond, I think it is a clear win for Obama because he escaped unscathed and is well ahead in the polls. I think Obama responded very well to the Ayers and ACORN accusations and he sounded like a moderate on abortion. He kept his composure, he seemed to know a lot of policy details, he was courteous, prepared, eloquent, presidential. McCain didn’t embarrass himself, but I didn’t quite buy his claim of hurt feelings over John Lewis’s remarks, so he didn’t always come off as sincere to me. McCain sometimes seemed like the smaller man, although I may be influenced here by my strong support for Obama.

10:30 PM — McCain says “good job, good job” to Obama as they shake hands at the end. The candidates and their wives look good up on stage. American democracy in action! What we saw tonight was two heavy-weights slugging it out, and I am proud to be an American right now.

10:27 PM — Did McCain just forget Obama’s name at the beginning of his closing statement?

10:25 PM — Does McCain think that Palin’s child has autism? Trig Palin has Down Syndrome…

10:23 PM — Obama is taller and better looking. It just struck me anew.

10:17 PM — McCain points out that “the health of the mother” has been stretched to include anything at all. Nice catch. I missed that in Obama’s answer that I admired so much (originally I had “life of the mother” — I guess I heard what I wanted to hear). Seems like I may have been bamboozled a bit by Obama’s smooth talk there.

10:15 PM — Obama: “Here are the facts…. There was already a law on the books that required providing life-saving treatment… I am completely supportive of a ban on late term abortions as long as there is an exception for the health of the mother.” He really answered that one well, I think. A really good answer.

10:13 PM — Definitely a better debate than the last one, at least in terms of entertainment. Still boring, though.

10:08 PM — Schieffer brings up Roe v. Wade and the Supreme Court. Obama says he believes Roe was rightly decided. Obama says it is an issue that good people can disagree on. McCain says he has no litmus test for supreme court justices, but states that supporting Roe is obviously disqualifying.

10:05 PM — A long back and forth on the mind-numbing details of the alternative health care plans. McCain says the average cost of health insurance is $5,800 a year. Obama just said the average cost of health insurance is $12,000 a year. Who is right? Who knows.

10:03 PM — Obama is explaining McCain’s health care plan, and it sounds like he understands it.

10:00 PM — McCain brings up Joe the plumber. sigh

9:58 PM — Obama claims he will allow the average person to buy the same health insurance that US Senators get and no one will be excluded based on pre-existing conditions. Wow. Too good to be true.

9:53 PM — Obama distinguishes between the Colombian and the Peruvian free trade agreements. Policy wonkery at its best.

9:51 PM — Obama is talking about energy, the auto industry, and trade. I’m bored, which is probably good. I don’t want to be not bored during this final debate.

9:48 PM — McCain wants to build 45 new nuclear power plants right away. This is a great idea and I’m all for it. This is the one area where I clearly like McCain more than Obama. I think Obama is too scared of the anti-nuclear wing of his party.

Joe The Plumber

9:45 PM — Obama says he thinks that Palin’s work with special needs children is commendable. What work? I am not sure what she has done other than have a special needs baby recently.

9:43 PM — McCain: “Sarah Palin is a role model to women.” He calls her a reformer. I roll my eyes.

9:40 PM — McCain is still pushing Ayers and ACORN and claims his campaign is about getting the economy back on tracks. Obama chuckles in disbelief. Obama flatly denies that he launched his political career in Ayers’ living room, but doesn’t get a chance to elaborate. Just as well. Better for Obama to get back to talking about issues.

9:37 PM — Obama is responding to the Ayers and ACORN accusations. It is clear that he has no substantive association with Ayers and ACORN. He has done a decent job in defending himself against McCain, I think.

9:35 PM — Wow. McCain just brought up Ayers and ACORN. Said ACORN is pulling off the biggest voter fraud in history.

9:33 PM — This debate seems a little livelier than the last one. I like the back and forth a bit. Obama needs to watch out, though. He shouldn’t get dragged into this bickering about who has been running the more negative campaign and who has the weirder fringe supporters at rallies. He is better off focusing on more presidential issues.

9:32 PM — I don’t know who Joe the plumber is and I don’t understand his economic situation well enough for these comments about him to make any sense to me. I don’t want to hear anything more about Joe the plumber.

9:30 PM — McCain attacks Obama for not repudiating the remarks made by John Lewis. Lewis is a prominent black congressman who has compared McCain to segregationist George Wallace. Obama to McCain: “100% of your ads have been negative.” I think I was falling for McCain’s spin for a minute there. There is absolutely no doubt that McCain has been running the more negative campaign. I didn’t know what to think when I heard him attack Obama for running negative attack ads.

9:26 PM — Schieffer: “Will you say it to each other’s face?” — in regard to attack ads.

9:25 PM — Obama: “Even Fox News disputes it” — in regard to the accusation that he wants to raise taxes on people who make $42,000 a year. He gets a chuckle from the audience. I tend to believe Obama on this. I expect that it is only through ridiculous contortions that McCain can support that claim.

9:21 PM — McCain: “I am not president Bush. If you wanted to run against president Bush, you should have run four years ago.” A nice jab!

9:20 PM — Schieffer wants specifics on how they are going to cut back spending in the face of record budget deficits. Obama wants to eliminate $15 billion in subsidies to health insurance companies. Sounds good to me, but who knows what the real detailed truth is. McCain wants to get rid of subsidies for ethanol. Also mentions getting rid of corruption and mentions that stupid planetarium projector again that Obama supposedly voted for.

9:17 PM — Obama is attempting to be a super-boring policy wonk, I think. Not a bad strategy when you are way ahead in the polls and the country is in a financial crisis.

9:12 PM — McCain brings up a plumber, Joe, who is “trying to realize the American dream” but can’t because of Obama’s proposed tax increases. Obama agrees that he and McCain differ on tax policy — they disagree on who will get tax cuts. Obama says Joe the plumber needed a middle-class tax cut five years ago (?). My take: basically they are each making claims and I don’t know who to believe.

9:00 PM — I’m here at my desk, iMac in front of me, beer at hand, the debate streaming live on the CNN website. Go Obama!

So who is Bill Ayers? Basically, back in 1969, when he was 25 years old, Ayers co-founded a radical anti-war group called the Weather Underground.  The group set off some bombs which killed some people and came to be known as a domestic terrorist organization.  Ayers went underground for a while and finally turned himself into authorities in 1980.  He is now a distinguished professor of education theory at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." The Weathermen took their name from this line in Bob Dylan's song Subterranean Homesick Blues.

It turns out that Obama and Ayers live in the same neighborhood and are acquaintances.  Palin has claimed that because of this association, Obama “pals around with terrorists.”  This claim is just ridiculous enough that it makes Palin look like the scary person rather than Obama.  Sure, it may play well with the 20% of the electorate who hate all Democrats and will vote Republican no matter what, but it does nothing at all to widen the appeal of the McCain-Palin brand.

Here are the problems for McCain:

1. Ayers is ancient news.  His activities occurred roughly 35 years ago.

2. Hardly anyone knows who Bill Ayers is. He did not have a high profile through the 80s, 90s, or 00s.  I somehow managed to get through college and grad school without ever having heard of him.  Maybe that is a terrible indictment of my education, but my sense is that I am not unusual in this respect.

3. No one seriously believes that Obama shares Ayers’ views.

4. The whole story is just too complicated to explain in under 10 minutes, so it is not suited to an American presidential campaign.

5. Ayers somehow just doesn’t seem like such a scary figure anymore.  People are likely to wonder how terrible a person he can be if our government is content to let him pursue a career as a distinguished professor at a major university.

6. Bringing up associations from the 60s just makes McCain look like a man who is in touch with the past and allows Obama to say things like “I was eight years old” when Ayers was active.

The McCain campaign is trying to make something out of nothing and the American people can sense it.  The net result is that McCain loses credibility.

John McCain

First of all, housing prices need to come down.  Responsible and prudent people like me decided not to buy during the last four years because we thought the housing market was overpriced.  This was not due to deep insights — all you had to do was read the news to know there was a bubble in housing.  Now we find out that John McCain wants to bail out the irresponsible and improdent people who bought homes they could not afford.  This makes me just sick to my stomach.  What about me? I lived within my means.  I’ve been trying to save 20% down (which in New York means saving $100K to buy a half million dollar 500-square-foot studio — and still being stuck with $600 a month in maintenance on top of your mortgage).  I made the smart move and rented, but now the idiots get bailed out?!?

Second, not only would this suck for me personally, but this would suck for America.  It would be a moral hazard.  People simply have to pay the price for taking risks.  If they don’t, they won’t stop taking risks.  Right about now it sounds like the government is going to bail out everyone and anyone (Bear Stearns, Fannie, Freddie, AIG, $700 billion for the whole financial sector, and now hundreds of billions more, under McCain’s plan, for homeowners who borrowed more than they could afford to repay) .  I would frankly rather suffer a 5-year depression (which would hopefully teach people in this country the value of working hard and saving their money) than just keep bailing out everyone and setting ourselves up for even greater crisis later. Our national debt is at $10 trillion, for crying out loud.  We can’t afford to bail anyone out!

If we don’t watch out, the US government itself could go bankrupt. As soon as the world loses faith in our ability to pay our debts we won’t be able to borrow money any longer.  When the US government defaults, that will be the crisis to end all crises.  People think it simply can’t happen, but if we keep bailing everyone out it will.  We need to buck up and take our medicine.

Michelle Malkin (who is no fan of Obama’s) has a great post on McCain’s terrible idea.  A key quote:

He spent the entire debate assailing massive government spending — while his featured proposal of the night was to heap on more massive government spending to pursue home ownership/retention at all costs. If Obama had proposed this, the Right would be screaming bloody murder about this socialist grab.

10:56 — Michelle Malkin does not claim that McCain won, and she is a right-winger, so maybe it was a boost for Obama.  Also, she is disappointed that McCain wants to keep housing unaffordable for responsible people. Thank god someone else agrees with me on this.

10:52 — FiveThirtyEight.com also calls it a clear win for Obama.  I just figured it was my bias at work when I liked Obama’s answers…

10:40 — Well, I have just checked Andrew Sullivan.  He thinks that this debate was “a mauling” by Obama and “electorally fatal” for McCain.  Wow.  I thought Obama did well, but Sully is euphoric.  Maybe it came off differently on TV.

10:35 — That’s it. Probably a draw on the whole.  I liked Obama a little better, of course.  The reason I began supporting him for president back in 2006 was that I liked his thoughtful and intelligent speaking style, which seemed to be evident here.  I was pleased with Obama’s performance.  McCain made no gaffes and seemed like a reasonable person.  I don’t think anything about the election will change because of this debate.  Still looks like advantage Obama for the presidency.

10:32 — Question is “what don’t you know, and how will you learn it?”  Obama is weaving around a bit, then returns to his family roots and the American dream.  Did not really answer the question (which is a good question I think).  Obama is basically repeating stump speech talking points here.  McCain: “I don’t know what is going to happen here at home and abroad…”  ??? “I don’t know what the unexpected will be.”  McCain is not answering the question very well either, but says “I believe in this country.”  Both whiffed on this last one, I think.

10:27 — I like McCain’s response on whether he would consult the UN before responding to an Iranian attack on Israel.  I certainly think that if Iran tries to annihilate Israel, they should expect an immediate and forceful military response from the US.  Obama also says it is unacceptable for Iran to get the bomb and does not want to give the UN veto power over the US.  He does not want to ignore the UN and diplomacy in general.  I judge them equal on this question.

10:25 — The pre-debate talk was that the townhall format would favor McCain.  So far this has felt like a normal debate and Obama has sounded as comfortable and at ease as McCain has.

10:21 — I am listening on the radio, so I can’t comment on their body language.  I wonder if this is a better way to focus on what they are actually saying?

10:15 — Obama is following up: he should have just said that he didn’t say he would “invade” Pakistan and left it at that.  By talking more he diluted his point.  Incidentally, it is a flat out lie for McCain to claim that Obama wants to “invade” Pakistan.

10:12 — Obama repeats again that he is willing to go into Pakistan if he will be able to take Osama bin Laden out.  McCain says Obama is talking big and it is turning public opinion against us.  I believe that if anyone’s opinion of America goes down because they hear Obama say he will get Osama bin Laden, then that is a person whose opinion of America is not going to be positive under any circumstances — certainly not under a McCain administration.

10:06 — McCain says “Obama will bring our troops home in defeat and I will bring them home in victory and honor” (or something like that).  To me, that just doesn’t sound right.  I personally believe that the opinion of the world toward America if Obama is elected would make it more likely that our troops would come home in victory. Also, how does McCain define victory?

10:00 — McCain: “America is the greatest force for good in the history of the world.”  Seems like a pretty grand statement, but it stokes my patriotism.

9:58 — Obama points out that McCain wants to deregulate the health care industry.  If that was meant to scare me, it worked.

9:56 — Obama says health care should be a right.  McCain just said it was a responsibility.  Obama really wants to explain his health care plan and I get the sense that he knows this stuff cold.  Obama is doing more finger-pointing at McCain, which sounds small to me.  Obama: “government should crack down on insurance companies that are cheating their customers.”  I like this!

9:52 — Question about health care.  This is a question I care about.  Probably my top issue.  Obama says that average people will be able to buy the same kind of insurance that he and McCain get and that no one will be excluded for pre-existing conditions.  Sounds good to me!  (Too good to be true, actually).

Tom Brokaw moderated, but not at The Cooper Union

9:50 — McCain says “I know you go weary of this back and forth…” and then he goes right back into the back and forth on who voted for what bill and so forth. I rolled my eyes.  He mentions off shore drilling, which I think is a drop in the ocean.

9:46 — Obama: “I favor nuclear power as one component of the energy mix.”  I like this.

9:40 — I’m getting a little sick of Obama and McCain accusing each other of having bad tax plans and repeating the same points over and over again.

9:37 — McCain says he doesn’t want to raise taxes on anyone.  To me this sounds like he doesn’t want to raise taxes on the very wealthy, like Obama does.  I like Obama’s ideas here better.

9:34 — Obama says he wants the American government to set an example by not running up a big debt.  He also says he wants to raise taxes on the very rich.

9:33 — Obama wants to double the size of the peace corp!

9:32 — So far this debate seems pretty tame.  Both candidates sound okay.  Obama seems a bit more on point to me, but I am a decided Obama supporter.

9:28 — email question:  what sacrifices are you going to ask the American people to make?  McCain says that some government programs will have to go.  He mentions Obama’s overhead projector again.  It seems like he is determined to drive that projector point home.  Obama starts by recalling Sept. 11th.  He then reminds us that Bush asked us to go out and shop.  He claims that Americans want a different kind of leadership than that.  Obama says he is going to ask Americans to conserve energy.

9:23 — Brokaw asks the candidates to rank their priorities. Healthcare, social security, and entitlement reform.  McCain says he can work on all three at once.  Obama says energy is his top priority.  Wants to be free of mideast oil in 10 years.  I am personally skeptical he can do this.  Obama then attacks McCain on giving tax cuts to big oil companies.

9:18 — Teresa asks “how can we trust you guys when both parties got us into this crisis.”  Obama says “I understand your cynicism.”  Obama points out that there was a surplus when Bush came into office.   McCain: “I have been a consistent reformer”.  Says Obama voted for a $3 million projector for a planetarium in Chicago.

9:17 — McCain again mentions that he wants the government to buy up bad loans.  Sheesh.  This sounds like a terrible idea to me.  The last thing we want to do is prop up wildly over-valued home prices.

9:11 — Oliver asks about how the bailout package is going to help people who are hurting.  McCain says he prefers the term “rescue”, not “bailout”.  Obama accuses McCain of being a deregulator.

9:08 — Brokaw: who will you appoint as treasury secretary?  McCain obviously does not have a name in mind.  Says he wants someone that Americans can identify with.  Finally names Meg Whitman.  Obama mentions Warren Buffett (who is 78).

9:05 — The first question is about the economy.  Obama is speaking fluently.  Seems like a lot of nice ideas.  Fix healthcare, fix energy, think about the middle class, etc.  McCain: I have a plan to fix this problem — it has to do with energy independence. (???!)  It is a bad thing that home values are decling.  (not for me!).  Wants treasury to buy bad home loans and let people stay in their homes.  He wants to stabilize home values.  (I would like home values to plummet, thank you).